Without knowing anything else, Florida would seem like a good investment for Biden. If the polling is to be believed, it’s at least as good as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
What makes Florida so enticing among these states is that it has 29 electoral votes. For Biden to win, he needs to pick up 38 electoral votes compared to Hillary Clinton. Florida gets him more than halfway there. Biden cannot win by merely picking up Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Michigan (16 electoral votes). Indeed, Biden almost certainly would need to win at least three of the other states, if he doesn’t win Florida. Biden would only need to win two of five states (Florida plus one other) if he carries Florida.
According to an analysis by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, however, the southern swing state voters who didn’t cast a ballot in 2018 were much more friendly to Democrats than those in the northern swing states. In the sunbelt, a large portion were nonwhite. In the north, the clear plurality were whites without a college degree.
With presidential year turnout, Biden’s likely going to be very competitive in Florida. If he wins there, it’ll be awfully tough for Trump to beat him nationally.